Imagine a situation where an adult looks on as a youngster first humiliates a child smaller than him then starts hitting them. And that grown-up is more interested in whether his hair looks good or whether there is a stain on his shirt. That youngster should have gotten a few slaps in the face a long time ago, but that’s not the way things are done today.
This is how political scientist Jan Holzer from the Department of Political Science at the MU Faculty of Social Studies describes the West’s behaviour towards Russia and what the West is willing to do to stop Putin’s aggression. “In the event of a conflict, the West is stronger. I assume that we would agree that the West is stronger economically, technologically, and materially. But the West lacks, at least for now, the will to act. That is something that Putin evidently isn’t lacking. And so, he does what he feels he is and will be permitted to do,” explains Holzer, who has studied the politics of the post-Soviet space for 30 years. “We focus on trivial things. All we can do is show our solidarity and impose economic sanctions, but at this point Russia is already ready for and used to them. Currently, I see no mechanism that would prevent Russia from doing what it wants in Ukraine.”
The military invasion of Ukraine was preceded by a speech from President Putin. But what Putin spoke about did not surprise this professor from the International Institute of Political Science. “Ukraine is part of a classic story that President Putin has now presented and with which he is trying to reach the Russian people and the European public. At its core is the idea that the fact that the primordial foundation of Russian statehood is Kievan Rus, that is, the territory of present-day Ukraine, justifies the Russian occupation of this area and restoring relations with and protecting the Russian-speaking people there. He is telling the Russians a comprehensible tale about historical politics, part of which is territorial nostalgia for the Soviet era,” notes Holzer.
According to Holzer, Putin’s actions can primarily be explained by issues related to domestic Russian politics. International politics is an imprint, a reflection of what Russians need to communicate internally. He also recommends the West doesn’t try to understand what the Russians want. “Trying to understand the Russians, focusing, for instance, on Putin’s mental state, is a bad strategy. In doing so, the West is actually giving Putin a ticket to ride, telling him: ‘Do what you consider to be good; the West will try to understand you.’ It means always getting the short end of the stick.”
Holzer says that forecasting how the situation will develop is complicated. “Let’s wait and see what NATO’s response will be – whether NATO will, for example, send units to the Baltic states or to Poland,” he adds.
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