Mikhail Kasyanov served as Russia’s Minister of Finance and later as Prime Minister between 2000 and 2004. After criticising Putin’s regime and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, he left Russia and now lives in exile. It was the second time he had spoken in the auditorium of the Faculty of Arts. “It is a great honour for me to be here again. I remember the wonderful meeting we had last year, and I would like to thank you for organising today’s lecture. It is a great privilege to meet such a distinguished audience,” Kasyanov said at the start of his talk.
The war has been raging for almost four years
The main focus of the lecture was the potential development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. “Before we look ahead, we need to understand what is happening now. Putin has launched an aggressive and unprovoked war against an independent Ukraine, which has been raging for almost four years,” Kasyanov said at the beginning of his talk.
As he put it, 2025 was initially expected to be a turning point in the conflict: “Many hoped for progress towards ending the war with the arrival of President Trump – because he promised it. Is has been eight months and, although it is not easy to admit, nothing positive has happened so far. The current situation is terrible.”
Even the 2025 Alaska Summit brought no change, and Kasyanov actually considers Putin the winner of that meeting. “Before the summit, Trump talked about imposing devastating sanctions, but what was the outcome? Trump effectively ended the isolation that Putin had been in for the previous three years and gave him silent approval to continue the war,” Kasyanov said, adding that Putin clearly intends to pursue his aggressive campaign further.
Can Ukraine keep fighting?
According to Kasyanov, the number of casualties on both sides of the war has been catastrophic, and he noted that “based on available data, 250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the conflict, with total ‘irreplaceable’ losses reaching nearly one million people, while Ukraine has lost 80,000 soldiers.”
He added that, together with the exodus of ten million citizens, these losses represent a disaster for Ukraine. Can the country continue to fight? Kasyanov answered this question by saying that “demographic calculations show that Ukraine still has the potential to mobilise 3.7 million men.”
Russian economy runs on oil and gas
When asked about the ability of Russia to continue the war, Kasyanov pointed out the state of its economy. He presented data from 2022, when Russia saw a major influx of foreign currency – over 300 billion dollars compared to the usual 150–200 billion – due to soaring oil prices. “Putin immediately channelled this money into military production. Russia now produces four times more ammunition than all 32 NATO countries combined,” Kasyanov warned, showing graphs that illustrated the effects of European sanctions.
These sanctions are one of the reasons behind the dramatic fall in Russia’s gas exports. Before the war, in 2021, Russia exported 170 billion cubic metres of natural gas to the EU every year. “In 2024, the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom reported massive losses totalling 13 billion dollars after losing most of its European market,” Kasyanov noted.
Russia is now trying to redirect its exports eastwards, with China becoming its main trading partner. However, the country cannot replace the European market – the exports to China planned for 2025 will not exceed 38 billion cubic metres. “All the storage facilities are full of Russian gas – they simply don’t know what to do with it. That’s why Putin is trying to persuade China to join another project,” explained the economist, sharing his thoughts on the future development of Russia’s foreign trade with the audience.
Europe must step up its support for Ukraine
So how can Russia be stopped? “Money and strength. The West must invest more in supporting Ukraine,” Kasyanov said. He explained that Ukraine’s total annual military spending currently stands at 100–110 billion dollars, with 60 billion coming from its own budget – amounting to 41% of the country’s GDP. The remaining 50 billion is provided by the West, but the European support accounts for only 0.3% of Europe’s total GDP. “If the West devoted one percent of its GDP to helping Ukraine, the war would end tomorrow. If it contributed half a percent, it would be over in three to four months,” Kasyanov estimated.
The former Russian prime minister warned that Putin’s Russia will remain a constant threat to its neighbours for a long time to come. “European nations and their governments must accept this reality and increase spending on both their own defence and aid to Ukraine. And I am not talking about a year or two, I am talking about decades,” he urged.
Change can only come after Putin
When asked about Russia’s future, Kasyanov replied that change will come only after Putin. “Any successor to Putin will be more moderate and will try to negotiate with the West, but it will still be a very difficult period,” he predicted, referring to examples from history.
According to Kasyanov, Russian propaganda has effectively deceived a large part of the population: “Many Russians feel betrayed – they see it as though the entire world has armed itself against them. Only now are they beginning to realise that the hundreds of thousands of deaths are the price for their silence, their lack of resistance and their failure to confront the dictator.”
A lively discussion with the audience
After the main lecture, a one-hour discussion followed, during which Kasyanov answered questions from the audience. In addition to queries about his personal safety, the role of the Orthodox Church in the conflict and his view of the situation in Slovakia, participants were also interested in his opinion of the Czech Republic. “The Czech Republic is not a small country. It is a very active member of the EU, and President Pavel has provided significant support to Ukraine,” Kasyanov said, emphasising the key role of the Czech Republic.
At the end of the lecture, he addressed the audience with a personal message: “I hope and wish the Czech Republic and its people great success. Make the right decisions that support democratic values. Protect yourselves, protect the Czech Republic, protect Ukraine and protect the values of the entire world.”